Last month, New Yorker readers in the Pacific Northwest freaked out after reading Kathryn Schulz’s article about the imminent massive earthquake and tsunami in the Cascadia subduction zone. The piece painted a vivid picture of the terrifying possibilities of a 9.0 magnitude quake affecting Oregon and Washington states, which are not well prepared for seismic events. In Seattle, doomsday prepper sites got a surge in traffic and earthquake kits flew off the shelves.
But Bay Area readers probably felt a different set of emotions. For once, the world wasn’t forecasting epic destruction in our neck of the woods. Compared to the Cascadia zone, our faults seem like kid stuff. To make sure we’re not just over-confident or getting earthquake cocky, the Bold Italic talked to a resident seismological expert, Dr. Peter Roopnarine, who chairs the Department of Geology at the California Academy of Sciences.
TBI: So what did you think of the article?
PR: It did an excellent job conveying how really dangerous that system is. Unlike in California, there has been very little attention paid to the danger of the Cascadia system primarily because of the lack of historical experience. And they don’t have the same rigor in terms of preparedness like we do or like Hawaii or Japan have. I saw that there was quite a bit of backlash against the tone of the article, but I didn’t find it inaccurate, maybe it was melodramatic. The lack of planning -- even at the government level -- is pretty shocking!
TBI: Is there a chance that a Cascadia zone earthquake could affect us here in the Bay Area?
PR: Look, we are very remote. The physical impact of an earthquake up there might mean that there are areas in North and Central California that would feel it, if it is magnitude 9.0. But the damage would be minimal because of the distance and the kind of terrain we have in between us. The Cascade mountain range would absorb the energy and the shaking intensity would be fairly minimal. In 2011, when the Japanese earthquake hit, the tsunami did some damage to Santa Cruz and Fort Bragg, so that’s a small possibility. But where we will definitely be affected
is in terms of energy generation because large parts of the Western grid will be impacted and there will be significant infrastructure damage in Oregon, Washington and British Columbia.
TBI: Seattle is like the carefree grasshopper in Aesop’s fable, and San Francisco is like the industrious ant who spends all summer getting ready for the winter. Will we have to rush in to help them?
PR: Well, the federal agency FEMA is pretty good about this stuff. They run numbers on expected casualties and resources needed as well as the demand on funds that would result.
It’s true that their lack of preparedness makes the situation a lot more dangerous. Even in a seismologically savvy place like Japan, they still designed their nuclear power plant in a vulnerable way. They knew better. So even when we know better, we don’t do our best. We try to get away with what we can.
TBI: OK, but we’re still the more responsible ones, SF seismic building codes are best in class.
PR: In no way are we out of a danger zone here. The San Andreas and Hayward faults are super dangerous, particularly because of the high population densities. The magnitude of the San Andreas doesn’t go as high as the Cascadia potentially can, but the Loma Prieta quake in 1989 was still very strong. Even after decades of upgrades and emergency procedures, we still have a long way to go. Eventually we will have a major earthquake here, but will it be a big one, or a very big one? It’s difficult to know.
TBI: Sounds like we should all include Xanax in our earthquake preparation.
PR: All I can say is that the physics of the rocks tells us that sometime within the next several decades, there is a high probability that we are going to have some movement. The predictability of a specific time is very low, but the likelihood of it happening is high.
TBI: So how are you prepared for the big one?
PR: Both my wife and I are geologists. We bought a house three years ago in Berkeley hills. We got a map easily available online from most real estate agencies to show you what the risk factors are in most areas. You can see landslide areas and liquefaction areas. We have an earthquake kit, you can get these at Safeway. We also made a communication plan with our parents and kids and designated gathering points. Our plan is to get messages to my sister in Florida, so that she can relay information if the cell networks are down.
TBI: As a geologist, would you get a special advanced warning?
PR: I wouldn’t, but over at Berkeley, they are developing an early warning system called
ShakeAlert based on the initial compression wave that precedes the quake. There can be about a 30 second lag, but that is all we need to shut down power grids, take trains off line and get the alert out to hospitals and schools.
TBI: And pop the Xanax?
PR: Right.